Monday, April 21, 2008

Changing Times and Attitudes at Ann Summers

At the LAI London Chapter Lunch on 17th April 2008 Ian Wallis gave us a fascinating insight into the development of a niche retail market: sex-related products. He charted for us the progress in business terms from a purchase in bankruptcy in the 1960s to a trans-UK and increasingly international presence today. In product terms, the progress has been from “men in macintoshes” to “a neighbour of Marks and Spencer’s”. This progress reflects, of course, the acumen of the Company’s owners, but also the transformation in mores during that time, a transformation in which Ann Summers played a significant part.

The business has had three strands. In the early days, it was very dependent upon ‘party retailing’; in a close analogy with Tupperware, the products were sold at female-only parties. Items not sold at parties were then passed to a small number of shops. In the 1990s the shop side was increased, to around 153 today. To achieve this was a considerable battle against entrenched attitudes by most large property owners but, Mr Wallis assured us, this has largely gone now – and no doubt the market troubles today will accelerate this growing ‘enlightenment’. Finally, in recent years, Internet selling has also become, not surprisingly, a major line for the business.

Part of the transformation in attitudes has been delivered by prudent management of product lines. This was given a boost by the purchase in 2001 of the Knickerbox chain. There is also an emphasis on developing well-known and trusted brands. Store layout and size has also been a key ingredient. Stores are now in the region of 1400 – 2000 sq. ft, with the latest, in Cardiff, being 4000 sq. ft. Layout design is intended to ameliorate the ‘embarrassment factor’, which is still a feature for many shoppers, while also preserving a degree of ‘theatre’ in the customer experience.

Some forays into fringe activities, such as vending machines and Ann Summers’ mobile phone ring-tones are being attempted. Franchising is not presently under consideration because there is considerable evidence of ‘cannibalisation’ when new stores are opened. This suggests to the writer that, despite the novelty of the products, demand is rather inelastic, if you will excuse the allusion. Ann Summers also appears to have been able to see off direct competition. Whilst a number of attempts have been made at the frilly underwear part of the range, there is no High Street competition in sex toys. Perhaps this points towards a business tension between creating more socially acceptable products, which might attract competition, and sticking with the less acceptable, which may frighten off competition.

All-in-all, Ann Summers seems to be textbook example of business creation and evolution in a ‘virgin’ area of activity – if you see what I mean. Ian Wallis gave us some very valid and enlivening insights.

Y’r O’b’d’nt Scribe

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

A Good Country for Old Men

Outlook for Global Property -- 2008


A Good Country for Old Men
Investment Property Forum/Society of Property Researchers' Event
March 2008

KS: Commmentary by
Karen Sieracki
KASPAR Associates Ltd.
Property Research Consultancy
karen.sieracki@kasparassociates.co.uk
President, London Chapter, Lambda Alpha International

KS: Well, it looks like the UK is the place to be for investment in terms of relative return and better risk profile. However, the skill is getting it right in terms of stock selection. It is here where experience does matter. The UK is now a good country for old men.

What kept people awake at night was the debt situation with the banks and were there any other surprises out there that would undermine the system.

U.S.

The consumer needs to get its balance sheet in order so it will not be driving the US economy forward. Corporate profits are still healthy at around 13% in 2007. This means money to invest in equipment and people, but business are currently in the wait and see mode.

Property yields have finally decided to move out - eg suburban offices at 7.0% (40bps out), CBD prime offices at 5.75% (25 bps out), retail at 7.1% and industrial at 7.25%. Will yields go back to circa 9%, the long term average? No, this is not thought likely.

The long term office vacancy rate is 15% and current vacancy rates in the major cities are getting near to that level now. Office rental growth for 2008 is likely to be in the range of 0% pa to 1% pa, a big difference from 2007 of 12% pa to 20% pa (average to prime range).

The construction cycle has started but the credit/liquidity crunch should stop it. Office and apartments are seen as income plays. Total return for 2008 is forecast to be 0% pa.

KS: Well, the concern here is - - will business help the US economy get better in 2009?? The consumer is burnt out. There is still the issue as to why the US property market did not feel the downdraft as early as the UK. There is much chatter about talking oneself into recession and the market down, but could this be denial? The chat is that 2008 property returns will not be negative and things will bounce back in 2009. Sounds all a bit familiar, so could the US be following the UK in the vain hope that this will happen?

Europe

It was felt that Europe and Asia had decoupled from the US on the economic front. The rise in the cost of debt should see a stop in development.

The UK is expected to see minus 1% pa total return in 2008. Europe total return is expected to be 2% pa for 2008. Yields have moved out in Europe. Office rental growth is expected to be 3.5% pa in 2008 and retail rental growth at 2.4% pa.

Investment deals in Europe had fallen by 30% in 2007 from the previous year.

KS: It is a brave move to feel that Europe and Asia had decoupled from the US. In looking at slowing economic growth and the maturing state of some of Western Europe's economies, immigration could be the saviour.

Also, investment activity could be tight as at the moment, there does not appear to be many forced sellers which would quicken the pace. Europe is a bit like molasses where the market is sticky and there is a lack of impetus.

Asia

Total returns for Asia for 2008 are likely in the order of 12% pa to 13% pa. There is huge economic growth potential in this region which has little real estate to support this activity. This is the important fundamental which underpins the investment activity.

China exports circa 20% to the US, so a slowdown in the US will have an impact, but it will not be too severe. Japan needs to restructure its economy.

There are risks down the line in 2009 and 2010 in the Asian markets as waves of supply complete, particularly in China and Singapore. Asia has less debt, so it not under the same pressures as the West to concentrate minds in this direction. The Asian property markets have low correlations with the UK market regarding property performance.

In looking at investment, the second and third tier cities in China are a focus for growing interest. The demographics for India are compelling.

The initial potential for investment is in the retail and hospitality sectors across Asia. Some Asian markets do have REITS which have been losing value. Could this be an indicator of future falls to come in the direct market?

With an office yield of 6.0% for Shanghai which, along with Hong Kong has twice the volatility of the City of London offices, is this really where one would want to be now? 2008 can be seen as possibly too late to enter these markets now. Leases are short - 2 to 3 years. It was felt that offices were past their peak.

KS: Asia is felt to be the hot spot, but it would appear that now is not the time due to the high level of development and its completion date. One needs to do research and spend the time and resources to understand these markets. The REIT factor could be a good indicator for future pricing in the direct market. So do your homework now, to enable you to be ready when the timing is better.

Friday, April 4, 2008

London Chapter Inaugurates Web-Log

The London Chapter of LAI is inaugurating a "web-log" or blog as a vehicle to foster greater dialog among our own chapter members and with LAI members around the world.

If a London Chapter member has an opinion piece or article they would like posted to this blog, email it to Mari McKavanaugh at mari.a.mckavanagh@som.com and request the item be added to this blog.

If a member of LAI wishes to opine on a blog entry, please click on the Comment field at the bottom of the individual piece.

Posting to this web log will be monitored and filtered as appropriate. Intrusive use of the site for unauthorized personal advertisement or advancement will not be not welcomed.