It is one of the great human delusions that we should like to know what the future holds. Thus it was that suitably delusional Members and their entirely sane guests attended our Lunch on 29th October to hear Dr McIntosh lift the curtain on what is in store for us.
Fortunately, perhaps, Angus was wise enough to tease us only with scenarios. He explained that he is participating in a project sponsored by the RICS Foundation that addresses the future under the title of his talk. The project is not yet completed, and he felt unwilling to reveal the precise level of the IPD Property Index on 1st April 2030; rather, he thought it better to discuss some of the key issues that might drive that figure. He identified six such drivers:
Demographics. During the period under consideration, the global population would continue to grow, perhaps nearing a peak of 10 billion. The numbers alone will put enormous strains on the Earth’s resources, particularly of food and, as one questioner made clear, water. The rate of growth would, in itself, be significant, but so also would its distribution; would the areas of high growth also produce the ideas that would help them manage the strains they would feel; there are grounds for pessimism.
Economics. Would governments follow, and would their populations allow them to follow, policies that would reduce economic inequalities? If they did not, there would be increasing risk that excluded peoples would, under the pressures they would experience, revert to various forms of obscurantism, not least religious extremism.
Governance. The principles of governance followed would be a decisive factor. For all its weaknesses, the European Union is, conceptually, highly enlightened, seeking to follow a broadly inclusive ethos; compare that with the ‘gated’ and protectionist ethos in most parts of the World.
Environment & ecology. We are all only too aware of Climate Change. Whether or not governments can bring the issue under control, changes will occur that will be highly disruptive to current patterns of, particularly agriculture. These may or may not increase the tendency towards food shortages, but they will certainly complicate solutions. Under this head, Angus included the effects of pandemics in congested and mobile populations.
Technology. Potentially more positive, the pace of technological change continues to accelerate; by 2030 we shall have at our fingertips technologies that we do not presently dream of – he particularly drew out bio-technology and drugs. Will these inventions be divisive or inclusive?
Information. Information is growing very rapidly; because of the internet, its distribution can be seen as ‘flat’. It can be accessed by anyone from anywhere.
Using these ideas, Angus sketched three scenarios for each of Europe, Asia, America
EUROPEAN SCENARIOS
Bastion: Depression; Oil and resource collapse, social inequality, rising violence – cities like fortresses.
Web: The triumph of global corporations, economic success, but sustainability only a buzz word – urban sprawl, housing inequality, gated communities
ASIAN SCENARIOS
Orient Express: China dominates; Australia and New Zealand sustainable expert; India
Broken promises: Increasing complex social problems in China and India , only Australia and New Zealand
Happy in the dark: Major worry over energy shortages and its repercussions on the whole of American society
Oil & Vinegar: There is a retreat behind borders and buildings. Social inequality & migration a major problem - political tension is rife,
Micro fanaticism: At a local level sustainable leadership dominates society and drives national governments.
GLOBAL SCENARIOS
Free trade and technology
VERSUS
Unrest and unequal societies, hence social tension - perhaps with religious fundamentalism
VERSUS
Knowledge, social values and a high quality of life. A sustainable future.
Because of the profundity of the issues raised by Angus, I have allowed my notes to be more extensive than usual. Whilst many of the points would have been in our consciousness already, to hear them drawn together so coherently was a privilege for us, and gave them perspective.
Michael Mallinson