What’s in the Future for our Nation’s High Streets?

We would all have been aware that there is a problem with extensive, sometimes almost overwhelming, shop vacancies in virtually every town in the Country, and with well-known trading names disappearing at an accelerated pace. At our lunch on 27th October we were fortunate to have Andy Godfrey, Public Policy Director, Alliance Boots, to give us his analysis, an analysis from probably the most-represented retailer on the High Street.

Whilst the proximate cause may often lie in the current depressing economic climate, Andy made clear to us that the roots of change go much deeper: the rise of supermarkets, out-of-town retailing and mail and internet shopping being the prime movers. These forces have been at play for two or three decades already and will not go away, with the impact of the internet in particular likely to grow considerably. Internet driven sales have increased from 5% to 9% in the last 10 years and some predict a doubling again within a decade. It is also the case that the very largest top 30 centres have prospered at the expense of the rest of the High Street locations.

Against this rather dark background, Andy suggested that people are rather fond of their local High Street; this was manifested in some local responses during the recent riots. Perhaps they fulfil a social as well as a commercial role. If that is right, there is a need to rethink the detail of that role, and not just in terms of retailing. Hopefully the emerging Report by Mary Portas will address the right issues. The re-thinking needs to take account of changing demographics, in particular more older people (your Scribe regularly shuffles round Woking looking for the spectacle shop) and, sadly, more have-nots. We should build on two factors: first, whilst many goods can be commoditised, and thus sold indirectly, and many, particularly fashion, rely extensive comparison, there remains a huge range of goods that people wish to ‘touch and feel’ before they commit themselves. Secondly, the concept of a ‘shopping experience’ is socially well-established, and that experience does not just include the purchase of goods. In Andy’s view the recipe for success, when times improve, will depend upon an emphasis on advice and service, providing room for individualism in the products and services offered, offering convenience of access and a safe and welcoming environment, and, above all, the fostering of the sense of ‘community’ that the best High Streets provide; these will be the crucial factors in encouraging footfall.

However, a successful High Street in 2020 will be very different from today’s offering and there are great difficulties in getting from here to there. Not the least of these is fragmented ownership. Realistically, this will only be overcome if Local Authorities take a leading role in ‘championing’ the high street, presumably justified by social importance. It will also require changes in Central Government Policies, laws and Regulations.

The vision offered by Andy met, I think, very wide acceptance. The questions really reflected the willingness, and ability, of all the parties concerned to overcome the barriers to delivery of the vision. Andy was quite upbeat about this, not least because there is an underlying commercial logic; not all will succeed, but that logic should give a fair wind. It was that that encouraged your Scribe: we had a hard-headed, but soft-spoken and entertaining, businessman espousing the vision, not a politician or academic.

Michael Mallinson